Tunis: Protecting Tunisia's national economy and population from climate disruptions requires financing estimated at $29 billion for the period 2026-2035, accounting for 53% of the total financing needs of the Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0). This was recently presented during a national debate organised by the National Forum of Adaptation to Climate Change (FNACC).
According to Agence Tunis Afrique Presse, the largest share of adaptation financing needs regards the water sector, with an estimated $10.7 billion required, followed by agriculture and food, which would need $8 billion. Financing needs for capacity building, technology transfer, and support for NDC 3.0 adaptation programmes are estimated at $1.85 billion.
The strategic document highlights that Tunisia is experiencing significant climate change effects, including rising temperatures, declining rainfall, and sea-level rise. If not urgently addressed, the World Bank warns that climate-related risks could contract Tunisia's economy by 3.4% by 2030, equating to nearly TND 5.6 billion, or $1.8 billion per year in net present value.
Annual losses due to water shortages, coastal erosion, and flooding are projected to reach 6.4% of GDP by 2050, equivalent to TND 10.4 billion ($3.4 billion) in net present value. The agricultural sector, in particular, faces severe impacts, with its value added expected to drop 15% by 2030 and 29% by 2050. A decline in agricultural production would lead to reduced net exports, increased imports, and a worsening current account deficit by more than 6% by 2030, exacerbating Tunisia's already fragile external balance.
By 2030, the poverty rate is also forecasted to rise to 21.3%, marking a 1.5 percentage point increase compared with the baseline scenario.
NDC 3.0 adopts an approach aligned with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), aiming to transform vulnerability into sustainable resilience by 2035. This vision is structured around seven priority axes, including the rigorous management of water resources for equitable access through the use of non-conventional waters like desalination and wastewater reuse.
The agriculture, fisheries, and food security sectors focus on using resilient seeds, digitalisation, and direct support for smallholders. Tunisia also commits to protecting its ecosystems and biodiversity, notably forests, oases, and wetlands, to maintain their vital services.
Efforts to strengthen the health system against climate risks, protect coastal areas against erosion, integrate climate risks into urban planning, and safeguard cultural heritage and ancestral knowledge are also outlined in NDC 3.0. These measures aim to improve livelihoods and combat poverty through regional development focused on creating green jobs.
National priorities include enhancing monitoring and evaluation systems, integrating climate risk into development planning, deploying innovative insurance and compensation mechanisms, and building institutional and local capacities. Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are national climate action plans developed by each country within the framework of the Paris Agreement. They describe how a country plans to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change impacts.