Tunis: The war declared on Iran since late February 2026 has reignited concerns not only in energy markets but also over water security in the Arab world, a region structurally water-scarce and increasingly dependent on desalination infrastructure. The militarisation of drinking water and any expansion of the conflict to this vital resource could have devastating consequences for millions of people, experts warn.
According to Agence Tunis Afrique Presse, water has often been linked to conflict. In 2024, around 61% of water-related incidents involved targeted attacks on water infrastructure, as per the Water Conflict Chronology database of the Pacific Institute. Houcine Rhili, a development and resource management expert, emphasized the direct impact of war on water resources in a naturally arid region already facing severe shortages. He highlighted that all Gulf countries are concerned about this issue.
Rhili further explained the potential consequences if the conflict were to expand and target desalination facilities in Saudi Arabia, the leading supplier of bottled water to several Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest producer of desalinated water, with an output of about 5.6 million cubic meters per day. Other countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar also rely heavily on desalination technology. Targeting water infrastructure would have a devastating impact on water resources, particularly on access to drinking water.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the most water-scarce in the world. While it houses around 6% of the global population, it holds less than 2% of renewable water resources, according to the World Bank. Twelve countries in the region rank among the most water-limited globally, including Algeria, Jordan, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates.
In the MENA region, water availability is about 1,200 cubic metres per person per year, nearly six times lower than the global average of around 7,000 cubic meters. According to World Bank projections, the situation is expected to worsen in the coming decades, with per capita water availability potentially halved by 2050 due to population growth and rising demand. In this context, water infrastructure is vital for population security.
Rhili added that even if the primary focus of the war appears to be energy, water is also central. He believes the objective goes beyond energy to reshaping the Middle East map, with water as a key strategic element. Faced with scarce natural water resources, several countries in the region have heavily invested in seawater desalination, which has become a cornerstone of their water security.
The region holds only 2% of global renewable freshwater resources, while 83% of its territory faces severe water scarcity. According to projections by the World Resources Institute (WRI), 100% of the population could be exposed to acute water stress by 2050. A study published in the journal Nature indicates that the MENA region accounts for 41.8% of global operational desalination capacity, with around 5,000 plants producing 28.96 million cubic metres of water per day. In some Gulf countries, dependence on this technology is nearly total, exceeding 80% to 90%.
Geopolitical tensions are compounded by the effects of climate change. Experts anticipate declining rainfall across several parts of the Middle East, along with rising temperatures and evaporation rates. According to projections by WRI, based on the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas, an additional one billion people worldwide are expected to live under extreme water stress by 2050. In the MENA region, 100% of the population could face acute water stress. Such projections underscore the need to treat water security as a major pillar of regional stability.
The combination of water scarcity, population growth, climate change, and armed conflict makes the Middle East one of the most water-vulnerable regions globally. For many analysts, the risk is now clear: if water resources or infrastructure become direct targets, the region could face an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Rhili emphasized the importance of rethinking water management policies, adopting new approaches, and establishing appropriate legal frameworks. He stated that governments must treat water as a supreme asset, to be protected with utmost vigilance and prioritize water security more than ever. Unfortunately, outdated mindsets from the 1960s and 1970s still dominate water management at the national level, a situation that must change.