Tunis, Tunisia - A new World Bank (WB) report highlights the grave impact climate change is projected to have on Tunisia's agriculture, predicting a significant drop in agricultural production and olive yields by 2050. The report, part of the WB's Fall 2023 Economic Monitor of Tunisia, was published on Monday.
According to Agence Tunis Afrique Presse, olive yields, which constituted 40 percent of Tunisia's total agricultural exports in 2019, could plummet by up to 69 percent by 2050. The WB anticipates a general decline in agricultural production by 29.1 to 33.1 percent relative to no climate stress projections. This decrease will disproportionately affect the rural poor, who have fewer resources to cope with climate impacts, leading to a projected reduction in Tunisia's real GDP by 4.1 to 4.6 percent.
The economic repercussions are expected to be significant even by 2030, with the economy predicted to be 2.0 to 2.7 percent smaller than it would be without climate-induced dry conditions. This equates to a loss of TD 2.7 billion to TD 3.8 billion (US$0.9 billion to US$1.3 billion) annually.
The WB's analysis examines the intersection of Tunisia's development goals and climate change, identifying major agricultural systems like olive, oasis, cereal, and livestock as highly vulnerable. Water availability is a critical concern, with per capita water resources expected to decrease by up to 66 percent (from 366 m³ to 122 m³) by 2050. Current trends suggest that 28 percent of water demand may be unmet by 2050 if no changes are made.
The decline in water quantity is expected to be compounded by deteriorating water quality and an increase in water-borne diseases, impacting the poor the most. The economic and social impacts of future water shortages are projected to be significant.
The WB recommends several strategies to mitigate these impacts, including managing water demand, employing alternative groundwater storage techniques, and utilizing nature-based solutions such as restoring forests, wetlands, and oases. These measures aim to recharge groundwater reservoirs and counter the anticipated decline in surface water.
Other recommendations involve expanding non-conventional water sources, like investing in treated wastewater reuse and desalination, improving irrigation efficiency, and promoting climate-smart agricultural practices. These strategies are aimed at reducing water demand from the agricultural sector, which currently consumes about three-quarters of Tunisia's water.
The WB also suggests institutional reforms to improve financial performance, incentives to reduce food and water waste along the value-chain, and establishing a water monitoring and early-warning system to enhance water management.