Pretoria:Moez Soussi an economics professor at the University of Carthage, has outlined several strategic measures for Tunisia's 2027 financial bill (PLF 2027).
According to Agence Tunis Afrique Presse, these include broadening developmental capabilities while safeguarding purchasing power and financial balance. He emphasized prioritizing investments in water, energy, and transportation, improving tax collection, and enhancing subsidy and social protection systems.
Soussi suggested adopting two scenarios for PLF 2027: a basic scenario and a more restrictive one, taking into account energy prices, exchange rates, and growth. These scenarios would assess the impacts on subsidies, debt service, and financing needs.
The Ministry of Finance is currently drafting the PLF 2027, which will be submitted to the Council of Ministers and then to the Assembly of the People's Representatives by October 15, 2026, in line with constitutional deadlines.
Soussi highlighted the importance of expanding the tax base, improving tax recovery through database interconnection, integrating into the formal economy, combating tax evasion, and revising low-impact tax benefits. He argued these measures could mobilize additional resources without increasing the tax burden on current taxpayers.
President Kas Saed discussed the 2027 financial bill with government officials, emphasizing the need to avoid tax pressure and facilitate project creation despite existing obstacles. The focus should be on protecting key investments in areas such as water and energy, prioritizing ready and economically viable projects, and publishing quarterly performance indicators.
Improving social protection efficiency and subsidies by updating beneficiary data and curbing misuse was also recommended. Linking public enterprise transfers to measurable objectives like reducing losses and arrears was suggested to enhance service quality and recovery.
Soussi advised supporting private firms capable of production, export, and employment through expedited tax refund processes and simplified customs and investment procedures. He stressed the importance of managing debt and liquidity to mitigate refinancing and currency risks while considering the impact of state borrowing on available funding for businesses.
Internationally, the IMF projects a rise in global growth from 3% in 2026 to 3.4% in 2027, with inflation decreasing. However, economic growth in the Eurozone is expected to be limited, posing challenges for Tunisian exports. The evolution of international monetary policy, energy prices, and currency fluctuations are crucial factors for the 2027 budget.
Domestically, growth prospects remain modest with the World Bank and IMF forecasting low growth rates for 2026 and 2027. This indicates limited capacity for generating additional fiscal resources through economic activity, impacting unemployment solutions.
Existing budget commitments for 2026 include significant expenditure on salaries, subsidies, and social transfers, with the debt service reaching substantial figures. These financial obligations highlight the need for a balanced approach in the 2027 PLF to expand developmental space while honoring social and financial commitments.
Soussi concluded that the PLF 2027's primary challenge is balancing financial and social pressures with creating room for investment and production. Enhancing energy transition, energy independence, and public spending efficiency are seen as key to boosting economic growth in the coming years.