Brazzaville: Tunisia must diversify its financing partners and rely more heavily on multilateral guarantees as it faces global fragmentation and tightening concessional financing, according to the African Economic Outlook 2026 (AEO 2026) report. Presented Tuesday in Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo, during the annual meetings of the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group, held from May 25 to 29, 2026, the report highlighted the main risks facing Tunisia.
According to Agence Tunis Afrique Presse, these risks include the slow pace of structural reforms, weak European demand, conflict in the Middle East, pressures on public debt, volatility in energy prices, and intensifying climate shocks. To mitigate these risks, the report emphasized the need to mobilise more external financing through partial guarantees, improve spending efficiency and governance of public enterprises, and promote private sector development to create jobs.
The report also noted that the stabilisation of the macroeconomic framework offers an opportunity to strengthen resource mobilisation. In this context, it specified that expanding fiscal space requires broadening the tax base, restructuring public enterprises, accelerating the implementation of public investments, and intensifying efforts to combat capital flight.
Mobilising domestic financing depends on the banking system's ability to limit the crowding out of credit to the private sector and support the development of the Tunis Stock Exchange and the national bond market. The report added that establishing an integrated financial system requires reducing intermediation costs and strengthening banking resilience through better risk and asset management.
It also recommended modernising debt management, strengthening financial supervision, developing a secondary market for government securities, and introducing concrete risk-sharing mechanisms with international partners. The report concluded that three priorities should be adopted: interconnecting tax databases, automating VAT controls, and combating the informal economy; creating a blended finance platform to structure public-private partnerships and attract private capital; and adopting a strategy to mobilise the diaspora by directing part of remittances toward productive investments.
Tunisia's growth is expected to reach 2.1% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, driven by the momentum of the tourism sector and the recovery of industrial exports, according to AEO 2026 forecasts. Monetary policy is projected to remain prudent to keep inflation at 5.7% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027, while managing domestic liquidity shortages and preserving the stability of the Tunisian dinar.
On the fiscal front, pressures are expected to remain high, with the deficit estimated at 6.1% of GDP in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027. The current account deficit is projected to reach 5.3% of GDP in 2026, the report noted. The same source recalled the slight recovery of the Tunisian economy in 2025, with real GDP growth reaching 2.5%, compared with 1.5% in 2024, driven by agriculture, the phosphate sector, construction, and tourism.
On the demand side, growth was supported by private consumption and exports, while investment remained weak due to financing constraints linked to limited fiscal space and an unattractive business environment. Inflation declined from 7% to 5.3%, enabling the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) to gradually lower its key interest rate to 7% in early 2026.
However, the Treasury's dependence on exceptional financing from the BCT is increasing pressure on macroeconomic balances. The current account deficit narrowed to 5.2% of GDP in 2025 thanks to improved revenue collection and lower energy subsidies. The AEO is the AfDB Group's flagship annual report. It examines how Africa can mobilise capital on a large scale to strengthen resilience, accelerate structural transformation, and finance development ambitions amid growing geopolitical tensions, tighter global financial conditions, and rising development financing needs.
Its launch brought together global leaders, policymakers, development partners, investors, civil society representatives, and private sector leaders to discuss Africa's economic outlook and financing priorities. According to AfDB, the report provides a platform to present these findings and recommendations to a broad international audience and help shape policy debate on the effective mobilisation and efficient deployment of capital.